Guerin Catholic
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #15
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #8
Noblesville Regional Rank #4
Noblesville Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 3.9%
Advance to State Finals 8.3%
Advance to Semi-State 75.5%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Circle City Conference Hamilton County State Preview Indiana All-Catholic Flashrock Invitational Culver Invitational Noblesville JV Invitational Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/5 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 351 386 405 630 390 404 515 621 494
Team Adjusted Rating 386 405 411 390 404 390 362 383
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Circle City Conference Hamilton County State Preview Indiana All-Catholic Flashrock Invitational Culver Invitational Noblesville JV Invitational Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
32  Ethan Hines 12 16:01 16:06 16:05 15:48 16:22 16:07 16:20 16:32 15:53 16:22
55  Jack Weber 12 16:17 16:24 16:15 16:36 16:20 16:04 16:17
76  Luke Moster 10 16:24 17:30 17:47 17:03 17:15 17:12 16:53 17:03 16:38 16:16 16:15 16:31
384  Maxwell Fish 10 17:28 17:27 17:29 17:28 17:23 17:19 17:23 17:31 17:45
505  Johnny King 11 17:44 16:54 17:18 17:44 17:46 18:23 17:33 17:56 17:34
616  Hunter Kinzle-Gorman 9 17:54 17:35 18:01 17:33 18:17 18:01 17:50
694  Luke Ross 10 18:02 18:23 18:43 18:41 18:16 18:13 18:13 18:01 17:38
792  James Crocker 12 18:12 17:25 17:51 18:41 17:49 18:05 18:49 18:29
828  Nathan Traub 12 18:16 18:41 18:06 18:04 19:47 18:47 18:05 18:12 18:13 18:10
901  William Gebhardt 10 18:21 17:43 18:20 18:36 18:27 18:36 18:07 18:25 18:12
Luke Jarymowycz 9 19:08 19:40 19:02 19:43 19:01 19:29 19:03 18:49
John Museck 12 19:13 18:53 19:08 19:01 19:35 19:39 19:04 19:15




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 8.3% 10.8 325 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 75.5% 7.9 244 0.0 1.2 7.2 23.6 19.9 13.5 7.5 2.2 0.5 0.1
Regionals 100% 4.8 131 2.7 45.5 27.2 19.4 5.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 3.3 87 0.1 71.3 28.7



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Hines 96.5% 33.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 96.2% 96.5%
Jack Weber 61.1% 52.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 57.6% 60.9%
Luke Moster 33.4% 59.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 27.3% 32.4%
Maxwell Fish 8.3% 154.9 0.0% 0.0%
Johnny King 8.3% 174.3 0.0% 0.0%
Hunter Kinzle-Gorman 8.3% 183.5 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Ross 8.3% 189.8 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Hines 100% 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.5 100.0% 100.0%
Jack Weber 100.0% 29.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 100.0% 100.0%
Luke Moster 100% 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 100.0% 100.0%
Maxwell Fish 75.5% 101.1 0.0% 2.7%
Johnny King 75.5% 120.1 0.0% 0.1%
Hunter Kinzle-Gorman 75.5% 133.2 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Ross 75.5% 142.3 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Hines 100% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 5.1 8.3 14.5 19.2 15.5 12.4 8.1 5.1 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jack Weber 100% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 7.0 8.6 10.7 10.9 10.4 9.2 8.3 7.1 5.0 4.3 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 100.0%
Luke Moster 100% 16.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 4.9 6.9 8.0 8.3 8.5 7.7 7.8 7.1 6.1 5.5 4.4 3.7 3.5 3.0 100.0%
Maxwell Fish 100% 46.5 100.0%
Johnny King 100% 57.3 100.0%
Hunter Kinzle-Gorman 100% 63.7 100.0%
Luke Ross 100% 68.1 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Hines 5.9 0.0 0.2 3.8 8.4 16.4 23.4 17.0 14.4 8.0 4.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Jack Weber 9.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 4.0 8.1 11.1 15.8 14.9 12.8 9.9 7.6 5.9 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Luke Moster 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.2 7.0 11.3 12.0 13.3 11.4 10.7 8.3 7.0 5.1 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Maxwell Fish 26.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.0 3.9 4.6 7.0 9.2
Johnny King 30.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1
Hunter Kinzle-Gorman 32.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Luke Ross 33.9 0.0